By Justin HAGER
Californians should expect to see a flurry of activity as the campaign to recall Governor Gavin Newsom heats up. Ballots will begin to be mailed to voters less than two weeks from now and advocates on all sides of the recall effort kicked into high gear this week after last week’s LA Times/Berkeley IGS poll found that 47% of likely voters said they’d vote to recall Newsom. The good news for Newsom and democrats is that 50% of likely voters said they’d oppose the recall but the margin of error, the enthusiasm of Republican voters, and the historic apathy of Democrats in midterm elections has strategists believing that Newsom may become the third governor in U.S. history to be successfully recalled and the first since Gray Davis in 2003.
The poll results were especially surprising in a campaign in which Newsom and his supporters have outspent their opponents 200-to-1 and in which Republicans have not yet coalesced around an opposition candidate the way they coalesced around Arnold Schwarzenegger in the 2003 recall. Newsom won by a landslide 23-point margin just three years ago, the largest victory by a non-incumbent candidate for governor since 1930. But that was before a previously unknown virus shuttered schools, churches, businesses and events; before California’s unemployment system was defrauded of billions of dollars; and before embarrassing photos were released of Newsom violating his own masking and social-distancing policies. Newsom was photographed attending a political adviser’s birthday party, unmasked, at the posh French Laundry restaurant in Napa Valley in November 2020. Newsom apologized for attending the gathering and violating his own safety protocols but with the birthday event happening on the eve of cancelled holiday season gatherings, many Californians were apparently not ready to accept his apology. The petition to have him recalled gathered the majority of its 1.7 million signatures after the photos were released.
While acknowledging that mistakes have been made, Newsom and his supporters said that the recall is about partisan politics and Republican attempts to make an end-run around democracy and seize the statehouse without winning a majority of the electorate. Their claims are backed up by the fact that this is the sixth attempt to recall Newsom and that the Republican National Committee spent $250,000 encouraging people to sign the recall petition. Moreover, the current petition for recall predates the pandemic and makes no mention of COVID. But even if the recall movement began as an attack on Newsom’s progressive politics, it’s hard to deny that it’s become a referendum on his handling of the pandemic.
What is less talked about, though, is that this recall is also functionally a referendum on which party should have control of the statehouse. While the answer would seem to be self-evident in a state with 3.7 million more registered Democrats than Republicans and a Democratic super-majority in the state legislature, those numbers are all but irrelevant in a recall vote like this.
Unlike regular elections, recall elections do not require any candidate to receive a majority of the vote. Instead, the ballot asks two questions: “Do you want to recall Newsom, yes or no?” And, “If more than 50% of voters say ‘yes,’ who should replace him?” If less than 50% of voters recall Newsom, he remains in office and Democrats retain unified control of all three branches of state government. If more than 50% of voters recall Newsom, then the governorship goes to the candidate who receives the most votes, no matter what percentage they represent. Newsom has successfully fended off any challengers from the left, which increases his odds of surviving the recall, but that also means if he is recalled and current poll numbers hold, Larry Elder, the 69-year-old conservative talk radio host, would become California’s next governor with support from only about 16% of Californians.
Regardless of whether you believe Newsom should be recalled or not, it is important to recognize that this election will not only determine whether Newsom remains in office but will also determine which Republican will replace him. Voters will begin receiving ballots on Aug. 16 with all ballots due by Sept. 14, 2021.