“If it falls from the sky, flows across the surface of the Earth, or is released from the sun, the National Weather Service most likely produces a forecast for it.”

~ United States National Weather Service

Recently we ran into our neighbor as we were picking up our mail at the curb. We exchanged hellos, then Pete said, “I hear it’s going to be a hot, dry summer” sending us off on a discussion about the weather. Exchanging pleasantries with our friends, neighbors and even complete strangers is fun and make us feel connected. Usually the weather is a pretty safe topic of conversation.

But beyond a subject of small talk, weather is vitally important to our everyday lives. Military operations have been thwarted by unexpected weather. One of the greatest military operations of all time – the D-Day Allied landings on the beaches of Normandy – was postponed at the last minute on the advice of meteorologists who predicted storms. The following day landings were made in calm waters.

Firefighting is another industry that relies heavily on weather forecasting. When critical fire conditions are predicted the National Weather Service produces a dedicated fire weather planning forecast for emergency managers and whenever big blazes burn you can be sure that incident meteorologists are there, complete with their portable weather stations.

Farming, mining, aviation and water planning are other examples of industries that are heavily dependent on accurate weather and climate information. With the growth of green power, like wind and solar power, these companies use weather predictions to forecast their power production so no one goes dark.

Accurate forecasts are so important, but how is weather predicted? The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is the agency charged with this responsibility. At the neighborhood level, SkyWarn Spotter volunteers report in real time unusual weather like thunderstorms, tornados and heavy rain. They fill in local gaps that regional instruments might not cover.

On a larger scale, surface weather stations collect data, like temperature, humidity and wind, and send it to the local weather office in Oxnard. Readings from weather balloons and satellites also feed numerical weather, water and climate models to the forecast office.

Computer modeling helps put together the forecast but, in the final analysis, because weather is constantly changing it is human beings – meteorologists – who use their local knowledge, their training and skills to create the forecast. You can read the sometimes humorous and always interesting daily musings of the NWS meteorologists online in the “Forecast Discussion” at www.weather.gov.

As to as our Crescenta Valley weather, we should be past the hottest days of the week with a cooling trend on Friday and Saturday. Gusty west-northwest winds are predicted for the mountains. Father’s Day is predicted to be in the 70s and 80s with a warming trend next week.

To paraphrase Mark Twain, “If you don’t like the weather right now wait a few minutes.”