“Perhaps some day in the dim future it will be possible to advance the computations faster than the weather advances and at a cost less than the saving to mankind due to the information gained. But that is a dream.”
~ Lewis Fry Richardson,
Weather Prediction by Numerical Process,
1922 English, mathematician, physicist & meteorologist

Is it still “a dream?” Hold onto your umbrellas; an answer is forthcoming.

Springtime is a period of weather fluctuation; the past 10 days are a perfect example. From Monday of last week to Monday of this week, daytime temperatures dropped from 95 degrees to 63 degrees while nighttime temperatures dropped from 62 degrees to 45 degrees. Now was this predicted? Yes, but without the extremes. No complaints here, only an observation; the weather was perfection in nature.

In writing Weather in the Foothills, an unexpected friendship developed. My professional background includes teaching and a degree in history. His is as a world renowned JPL climatologist with a Ph.D.

I met Bill at a Rotary Club meeting where he was speaking on climate change and drought. Afterwards, I humbly approached him and introduced myself. No introduction was needed on his part. Of whom I speak is Dr. William Patzert.

Long story short, we talked, laughed and exchanged email addresses. Bill soon became my “go-to guy” when I had questions about weather and climate. His responses are wonderfully long, informative and humorous.

I recently received an email informing me of his retirement.

“Bye-bye, Bill,” I thought. But, no…

I asked his opinion on Richardson’s words.

He wrote, “You can use anything I send. I am now a ‘retired, but not brain dead, climatologist.’

“All weather folks have made bad long-range forecasts in spite of the tremendous advances in computer power. Five days out, weather forecasts are almost always excellent! Beyond five days, your local fortune teller is as good as the TV weather forecaster.

“As for brother Richardson’s almost 100-year-old vision, I would reply, ‘Not yet brother, but forecasts are slowly improving – by hours, not days.’”

Winds and possible precipitation are expected through tonight, followed by an offshore flow over the weekend; warmer temperatures and clear skies will reign. A wind shift brings a few clouds and cooler temperatures through midweek. Predicting weather may be a nightmare, while weather in the foothills is a dream.

Sue Kilpatrick is a Crescenta Valley resident and Official Skywarn Spotter for the National Weather Service. Reach her at suelkilpatrick@gmail.com.