By Mary O’KEEFE

There has been a lot of talk in the media about a “Super El Niño.” We have all been warned of the extreme weather on its way, so I reached out to NOAA and asked it to clarify what we are actually facing and what it will mean this year. Below are my questions and their answers from Erica Grow Cei, Public Affairs specialist/meteorologist (team lead) at NOAA.

1) What are the chances of a “Super El Niño” occurring in the Pacific Ocean this summer/fall/winter? First, NOAA does not use the “Super El Niño” definition. We provide chances of different strengths as part of our monthly ENSO discussion that updates the second Thursday of every month. In our last update, we noted there is still significant uncertainty with the ultimate intensity of the event. After all, El Niño has not even formed yet and we are still in an “El Niño Watch,” meaning that conditions are favorable for it to emerge. Right now, none of our individual strength categories exceed 37%. Currently, for the November-January 2026-27 season, there is a 2-in-3 chance of a strong *or* very strong event (combined categories). There is a 1-in-3 chance of seeing an intensity weaker than strong (includes chances for neutral).  These odds will change every month as we incorporate new information from our models and observations.  

2) We have been hearing there may be an El Niño, which is something Southern Californians have heard many times. What makes this prediction different? That’s right … El Niño events occur every two to seven years. The last one was in 2023-24, which led to increased precipitation over much of California, especially along the coast. That event was considered a borderline strong event with sea surface temperature anomalies in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean (how we primarily measure El Niño and La Niño) reaching +1.5C above normal for the winter season. This event is a little different in that its *possible* strength is stronger than 2023-24, but it still remains to be seen if that actually occurs. We cannot guarantee the ultimate amplitude of this El Niño event, we can only provide the chances for certain intensities to occur.  

3) What causes a Super El Niño? All El Niño events are a result of interaction between the tropical Pacific Ocean and the overlying atmospheric circulation above it (winds, pressure, rainfall). El Niño events are associated with above-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, weaker than average winds blowing along the equator, and a shift in rainfall to the central and possibly the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Because the tropics are so big, the shift in heating can change the position of the jet streams that blow from west to east across the North Pacific Ocean. The jet stream is more likely to shift southward and extend eastward, which can increase precipitation and storminess across the southern tier of the United States (while reducing the chances of precipitation for parts of the northern United States). These particular impacts tend to occur mostly during the winter and early spring. During the summer, El Niño has less of an influence on the United States.  

4) There are reports that some areas of the country will see flooding while others will face drought if this is a Super El Niño. Will that be the case? Flooding and drought are some of the extremes that can occur with El Niño, but please keep in mind that even a very strong event does not necessarily lead to very strong impacts. El Niño helps to set the background flow upon which weather events are steered. It is not a storm or a weather event; it is a seasonal climate phenomenon [that] makes it more or less likely for certain outcomes to occur over the course of the winter or early spring. This is why we have a disclaimer in our ENSO strengths graphic that a stronger event does not ensure stronger impacts, but rather simply makes it more likely that certain impacts will occur. For possible impacts on the U.S., please see CPC’s seasonal outlooks at https://tinyurl.com/37hay5e2, which are updated on the third Thursday of every month.

For our weather we may be seeing some showers today through tonight, about a 20% chance of rain, according to NOAA. 

No strong winds are in our future but a significant warm up with temperatures on Friday and Saturday climbing into the 70s and Sunday through Wednesday into the upper 80s possible 90s.