By Sue KILPATRICK
“You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.” – Bob Dylan
Light rain showers fell over the Crescenta Valley as a weak low pressure system moved into the area earlier this week. To some this was unexpected and to others a possibility. I must admit I was one of the surprised ones. I based my prediction on information from the National Weather Service and other reliable scientific sources. Cumulus storm clouds collected, in spite of what the NWS had to say, and .08 inches of rain collected in my gauge. Well, what happened? History and similar experiences will tell you!
Trying to predict weather is not the same as succeeding. Weather forecasting from the time our ancestors looked out their cave doors, and for most of human history, has been a series of disappointments and rude surprises. Fortunately development of weather instruments, weather balloons, radar and satellites have made weather prediction more reliable. So, was there any way to predict this week’s rain? Well, yes, there was. I sifted through all my various sources and found the correct one. The Farmer’s Almanac! It reads: May 2010 16th-19th – Fair, then unsettled, rain.
This 200-year-old publication claims to be 80% accurate. Its prediction formula includes moon phases, sunspots and other atmospheric conditions. But, it also notes, weather forecasting still remains an inexact science. Where does this leave us? Let’s look at the upcoming week:
Daytime highs should remain in 70s and night time lows in the 50s. On Sunday there is a slight chance of showers and possibly on Thursday as well.
Is it time to put away your umbrella? I don’t think anyone really knows!
Sue Kilpatrick is a longtime CV resident and amateur weather watcher. Reach her at firstname.lastname@example.org.